Can the Alabama Crimson Tide advance to a Sunday SEC Championship Game, or is it vulnerable to a dark horse upset?
Alabama Crimson Tide supporters are concerned after two consecutive SEC losses to Tennessee and Florida. March is when teams should peak, but Alabama is now doing the opposite.
With one regular-season game remaining, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, and Kentucky are tied for second place in the SEC at 12-5. If all four teams win on Saturday, the Crimson Tide should get the third seed in the SEC Tournament based on tiebreakers.
Opposite of the away game blowout failures is that the Alabama Crimson Tide has been able to play with any team in the nation. In terms of projections of making the NCAA Tournament Final Four, ESPN projects only seven teams above the Tide’s 20.1% probability. Two of the teams projected above Alabama (Purdue and Arizona) beat the Crimson Tide early in the season. Those two games, along with several others are why the Crimson Tide has the No. 2 Strength of Schedule (SOS) in college basketball, as calculated by ESPN’s BPI.
Can a dark horse team pull off a major SEC Tournament upset? Among the SEC’s top teams, is the Alabama Crimson Tide particularly vulnerable to an upset? Two quick answers are yes and yes. Anything can happen in a tournament and the Crimson Tide’s combined road and neutral court record this season is 7-8. Six of the losses were by double-digits, with two being by 20 and 22 points.
SEC Dark Horses and Potential Upsets of the Alabama Crimson Tide
Despite Alabama only beating Vanderbilt by three points in early January, the Commodores are not a dark horse threat to the Crimson Tide in Nashville. The Dores get no boost from playing down the street from their campus.
Missouri is worse than Vanderbilt and does not qualify as an SEC Tournament threat. On the opposite end of the threat risk, Tennessee Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Florida are too good to be considered dark horses.
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