Line Calls, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook: Women’s French Open Stock Watch

April 13, 2024 Agada Others 0

Is Iga Swiatek the only player to consider when looking to the Paris futures market?

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The WTA doesn’t throw players into the clay-court fire like the ATP does. Sure, we just saw Danielle Collins win Charleston, but green clay in the United States is very different from the red dirt in Europe. But a lot of the top women in the world will be in action for a 500-level event in Stuttgart next week, before things really pick up with the Mutua Madrid Open, a WTA 1000, the week after.

With that in mind, it’s time to start thinking about how to bet on the 2024 French Open.

The Big Four

Iga Swiatek (+100): For many people, betting the French Open futures market means betting on Swiatek or passing entirely. The 22-year-old has already won this event three times, and she’s a preposterous 63-9 on clay at the WTA level. One of the main reasons for that is that Swiatek’s break percentage on clay is up to 51.6%. That gives her a huge margin for error on her serve, which can occasionally get away from her.

Swiatek is also a world-class baseliner, with her ground strokes and court coverage being a level above everybody else’s. The latter is especially important on clay. Swiatek can occasionally lose the range on her forehand, especially when her opponents hit powerful shots with depth to speed up her process. That’s one of the main reasons Swiatek can occasionally suffer some perplexing losses on grass or hard courts. But it’s very difficult to speed Swiatek up on the dirt. Look for her to thoroughly dominate the next couple of weeks, and then turn her attention to a three-peat.

For many people, betting the French Open futures market means betting on Swiatek or passing entirely.

Aryna Sabalenka (+460): Sabalenka is a two-time Grand Slam champion, with the Belarusian having won the Australian Open in back-to-back years. She has a career 70.9% winning percentage on hard courts, and that has come in 275 matches at the WTA level. There’s no arguing whether that’s her best surface. However, clay is easily second for her. The 25-year-old is 51-24 on the dirt, and has been to the semifinals in Paris. She’s going to have a shot at winning Roland Garros, especially if Swiatek gets bounced earlier than expected.

Sabalenka is also a two-time champion in Madrid. The slower courts give Sabalenka more time to chase down balls, and she then has the power to hit through her opponents. Not many players can say the same. It’d be shocking if Sabalenka doesn’t win at least one title at Roland Garros in her career; you just have to decide whether or not you think it’ll be this year. But it is worth noting that she has a lot going on off the court. So, you might want to see how she plays over the next couple of weeks before betting anything.

Coco Gauff (+900): Gauff is a player that should one day contend for Roland Garros titles. The American did make the final in 2022, though Swiatek earned a quick 6-1, 6-3 victory over her. Gauff is just such a relentless player from the baseline that it’s hard to get the ball by her in these conditions. And she also has as good of a backhand as anybody on tour, which gives her one of the biggest weapons in the tournament.

The issue with Gauff heading into the clay-court season is that her opponents seem to have figured her out a little. While Gauff improved her serve and forehand enough to win the 2023 US Open, those shots have gotten away from her a bit in 2024. Until we see her find some consistency with both of them, it’s hard to expect her to win another major. However, the terre battue will give her the time she needs to set her feet and hit her forehand.

Gauff has as good of a backhand as anybody on tour, which gives her one of the biggest weapons at Roland Garros.

Gauff has as good of a backhand as anybody on tour, which gives her one of the biggest weapons at Roland Garros.

Elena Rybakina (+1400): Rybakina would be looped in with Swiatek and Sabalenka at any other tournament, so it’s interesting to see her all the way down here. She won a Wimbledon title and has already accomplished a lot on hard courts, so it’s understandable to consider this her weakest surface. But Rybakina also happens to be 42-19 on clay in her career, and she’s one of the most reliable servers on the planet. That gives her something of a high floor when it comes to clay-court tennis. While everybody takes turns breaking one another, Rybakina should be able to mix in some comfortable holds.

Rybakina’s odds probably have a lot to do with the fact that she has never been further than the quarterfinals at Roland Garros. But Rybakina won a title in Rome last year. That should be all the proof you need to know that Rybakina has the ability to one day win this event. And at this price, she might be the best bet you can make.

Don’t Sleep On…

Jessica Pegula (+5000): If you’re not backing any of the tour’s top options, Pegula is an interesting player to consider. After a run to the semifinals in Charleston, Pegula has now won six of her last eight matches. Pegula, who made changes to her team earlier in the year, is starting to look more like her 2023 self, and she’s doing that while continuing to make tweaks to her serve—the key to joining the WTA’s elite and staying there.

Pegula’s all-court game also makes her a very difficult player to beat on clay. She’s not going to beat herself out there, and that’s part of the reason she looked so good in Charleston. Pegula was also the runner-up in Madrid in 2022. She has a real shot at making a deep run in Paris, and an upset or two to the top players can give her the opening she needs to potentially claim her first Grand Slam title.

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