Here are the most likely first-round playoff matchups for the Browns with two weeks remaining in the 2023 regular season, according to NFLseedR.
We are in the stretch run for the 2023 season and your Cleveland Browns are in a great spot. They have a leg up on every Wildcard contender with 10 wins and have every opportunity to make things come to reality by clinching their spot this weekend.
For the Browns to get into the playoffs, which they have a >99% chance of doing, they need one of the following to happen. First, simply win and you’re in. With their Thursday Night Football game, this is the easiest way. As Kevin Stefanski noted following last Sunday’s win, “earn your spot” and the Browns will be aiming to do just that.
But this is no easy task with a challenging Jets defense coming to Cleveland. Joe Flacco spoke on the focus of the game and trying to forget the playoff noise. “Yeah, I mean, listen, we talked about it a little bit after the game this past week. It seems like every week you look at the game and you’re like man, this is a big one, this is a big one and it’s just another one of those. I think, once again, we can worry about that when the game is all said and done, but just go out there and focus on winning.”
Should things go sideways, which none of us want, the Browns can also clinch their spot in the playoff by the following scenarios: Steelers loss, or a Bills loss, or a Jaguars loss/tie, or both the Texans and Colts both lose/tie. Plenty of routes there but the Browns aim to just keep it simple and win their own game to clinch.
The No. 1 seed and an AFC North Division title are still in play but the odds are slim. The Browns need to win both of their remaining games and then have the Ravens lose to both the Dolphins this week and the Steelers in Week 18. That gets the division done. Then the Browns would need the Dolphins to also lose Week 18 to the Bills to get the No. 1 seed. Longshots there.
So, the goal today is to show you their most likely path, which is the top Wildcard and No. 5 seed, and who they are most likely to face in the opening round based on @nflseedR prediction models.
WILDCARD: BROWNS AT JAGUARS — 47%
This is the most likely option with the Browns being the five seed and the Jaguars winning the AFC South. The Jaguars are playing their worst football of the season having lost four games in a row after starting 8-3 and are dealing with a bad shoulder for quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
They close the season with a home game against the 2-13 Panthers and then finish the 2023 season on the road against the 5-10 Titans. They are the most likely winner of the AFC South, so that leads the probability scale, but the Jaguars are far from the best version of themselves and will need to turn it around quickly to win the division.
The Jaguars can clinch the division with a win and then a Texans and Colts loss.
The Browns have not visited Jacksonville’s EverBank Stadium for a regular season game since 2020 so there will not be much familiarity there.
WILDCARD: BROWNS AT COLTS — 19.8%
This was one of the league’s best games in 2023 as the Browns won on their final drive in a 39-38 rollercoaster ride of a football game that saw several lead changes and big plays. Since the Week 7 matchup the Colts have hung tough with Gardner Mishew leading the way as they have battled to the same 8-7 as the rest of the AFC South and put themselves in a solid position over the final two weeks of 2023 despite a tough loss to the Falcons this past Sunday.
They close the year with two tough challenges. First, they get the 7-8 Raiders at home as the AFC West foe is riding high off an upset win over the Chiefs and the divisional title longshot hopes remaining alive. If they get through that one, the Colts have the Texans waiting for them in Week 18, and that one will be played in Houston. Not easy, but the Colts are a resilient bunch and the second most probably winner of the AFC South.
The Colts cannot clinch the division or a playoff spot this weekend alone. They will need to perform into Week 18.
The Browns visited Lucas Oil Stadium earlier this year so the trip will feel familiar.
WILDCARD: BROWNS AT TEXANS — 14.4%
We just witnessed the Browns handle business in Houston with a 36-22 win that was far less competitive than that score indicates. The Browns led 36-7 before pulling starters and allowing the Texans to put a few points on the board.
The difference in a rematch in a few weeks would be the availability of quarterback C.J. Stroud and that makes a difference for the Texans squad. He brings a much different element to their offense and would have that unit operating at a vastly superior level to the one we just saw Sunday.
As for their remaining two games, the Texans hose the Titans in Week 17 before they travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts in that huge Week 18 finale.
The Texans cannot clinch the division or a playoff spot this weekend alone. They will need to perform into Week 18.
The Browns will obviously have recent experience down at NRG Stadium.
WILDCARD: BROWNS AT CHIEFS — 10.3%
The most likely non-AFC South team for the Browns to face would be the Kansas City Chiefs which is odd to say considering their recent success. They can clinch the AFC West division with a win/tie or get some help with a Raiders loss/tie against the Colts and a Broncos loss/tie against the Chargers. If they were to lose this game against the Bengals at home, it is unlikely they would clinch until Week 18 but the division would be up for grabs at that point.
To close the year, the Chiefs get the Bengals, and then a trip out West to face the Chargers in Los Angeles.
The Chiefs have had a letdown season against what expectations usually are for the team considering the star talent and Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. The Browns haven’t faced the Chiefs in a regular season game since the crushing season-opening loss in 2021, but they did travel to face the Chiefs in the final preseason game this year so there should be some familiarity.
DIVISIONAL: BROWNS AT RAVENS — 16.6%
The Divisional Playoff structures get tough to predict but if you just go by selecting favored teams, the Browns winning on the road against an AFC South team and all other higher seeds winning means the Browns would go on the road and face the AFC’s top-seed and that is likely to be the Ravens.
Baltimore can clinch the AFC North and the No. 1 seed with a win over the Dolphins this weekend. They can clinch the AFC North alone despite not winning if the Browns were to lose on Thursday night. They can still get the top seed in the AFC despite losing to the Dolphins if the Bills were to go into Miami and win in Week 18 and the Ravens take care of business at home against the Steelers.
As we know, the Browns split with the Ravens this year including a rough Week 4 loss in quarterback purgatory and then a key comeback 33-31 win in Week 10 in Baltimore.
The storylines around Joe Flacco and the Browns’ lack of fear of their divisional foe would make for great theatre in the second round of the playoffs.
DIVISIONAL: BROWNS AT DOLPHINS — 11.8%
The Dolphins being the second-best AFC team currently and a decent chance at getting the No. 1 seed means the Browns could end up heading to South Beach for a matchup of the NFL’s best 0ffense against the NFL’s best defense in the second round.
The Dolphins have to handle tough business two weeks in a row to get that No. 1 overall seed by beating the Ravens on the road and then beating a hard-charging Bills team home in Week 18. If they handle business it could make for a fascinating Divisional Playoff matchup.
The Browns went to Miami back in 2022 where they were embarrassed coming out of the bye week losing in a non-competitive game 39-17. They would like another shot at that vaunted Dolphins offense.
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