The data that shows why the Hawks, Blues, Lions and Bulldogs could win the AFL flag from the bottom half of the eight

After 25 tumultuous rounds the dust has barely settled on one of the most chaotic finals races in memory.

And 18 teams have finally become eight after a season full of twists and turns, with favourites falling by the wayside at will.

Collingwood’s title defence is officially over before spring has officially sprung. They aren’t alone amongst recent flag winners on the sidelines of September, with the winners of six of the past seven premierships staying at home.

At this time of the year talk usually turns to the top four as the favourites, and the bottom half of the eight as also runs. After all, only two sides have won a flag from the bottom half of the final eight since it came into place in 1994.

But 2024 has proven that it is a season a bit different to most others. Arguably the three hottest teams heading into the finals sit outside the top four, with the eighth-placed Carlton being the side many deemed as flag favourites as recently as halfway through the year.

This weekend will see these four sides whittled down to just two. The survivors will be well placed to become the sixth side to make the grand final from this position in the final eight era.

This is how each of these sides might make a famous charge, and what might stop them in their tracks.

 

 

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