Looking at this week 17 NFL games to see what the optimal outcomes are for the Cleveland Browns.
Welcome to my weekly rooting guide looking at the best outcome of each game for the Cleveland Browns. While a large focus will be on who wins the game and how it impacts the team’s chances of making the playoffs we will also be looking at other factors too.
If the Browns own draft picks from another team then it is in their favor for that team to struggle and result in them picking higher.
To give you an idea of who is favored in each matchup I will add the current betting line at the time of writing.
People have given me feedback on how they would like the article to be structured so we are trying a new setup:
– Game by game best outcome
– AFC playoff race current standings
– NFL tiebreaker procedures
– AFC playoff odds
– SumerSports playoff probability
– AFC North remaining schedule
– Browns 2024 draft picks
– Summary of all the game by game picks
SAT 8:15PM ET – LIONS (11-4) @ COWBOYS (10-5)
Betting Line – Cowboys 5.5 point favorites
I fear the Cowboys more than the Lions in the Super Bowl which makes this an easy choice. A Lions vs Browns Super Bowl would be pretty iconic for two franchises that have been through a tough time.
Go Lions!
SUN 1PM ET – CARDINALS (3-12) @ EAGLES (11-4)
Betting Line – Eagles 11.5 point favorites
While people’s first thought might be keep the Eagles out the Super Bowl, with a matchup like this I am more worried about where the top few picks in the draft are going. For that reason I’m rooting for Howie Roseman’s Eagles to pull of a comfortable win. The more they make the Cardinals look bad the more chance they trade Murray to an AFC team rather than a top two pick. I don’t want either of these top two picks coming to the AFC and if we can keep Marvin Harrison out the conference too that would be nice.
Go Eagles!
1PM ET – FALCONS (7-8) @ BEARS (6-9)
Justin Fields
(Photo: © Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports, USA TODAY Sports)
Betting Line – Bears 3.0 point favorites
Bears have six wins and that is more likely to get them higher up the draft order but there is a chance they trade that away due to already having the Panthers pick. Both teams are likely to be in that 8-15 range in the draft so it doesn’t matter too much. Which AFC team lands with Fields will be interesting as they likely trade him out the conference.
Who cares!
1PM ET – PANTHERS (2-13) @ JACKSONVILLE (8-7)
Trevor Lawrence, Doug Pederson
(Photo: © Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK, USA TODAY Sports)
Betting Line – Jacksonville 6.0 point favorites
They are two wins clear of the nearest AFC team so I’m not too worried if the Panthers get a late season win. Plus we have all been through the misery of fans so give them something to root for with their young quarterback.
While I still root for the division or the #1 seed the most likely outcome will be the #5 seed, which is probably going to lead to playing the winner of the AFC South. That is the Texans, Colts and Jaguars, for I would prefer the Colts so hopefully they can sneak through.
Go Panthers!
1PM ET – RAMS (8-7) @ GIANTS (5-10)
Matt Stafford
Betting Line – Colts 5.5 point favorites
Currently the top three picks are owned by NFC teams, then we have the Patriots, Giants and three AFC teams. It would be great to see four quarterback hungry NFC teams begin the draft.
Go Rams!
1PM ET – RAIDERS (7-8) @ COLTS (8-7)
Betting Line – Colts 3.5 point favorites
The Raiders can mathematically win the division and eliminate the Chiefs from the playoffs which would be hilarious but it isn’t going to happen. But the Colts could win the AFC South and I would prefer them out of the Jaguars and Texans despite being the one that ran us closest this season. Plus the division having all the teams going for it in the final week rather than resting players is helpful.
Go Colts!
1PM ET – DOLPHINS (11-4) @ RAVENS (12-3)
Betting Line – Ravens 3.0 point favorites
The biggest game of the weekend for Cleveland Browns fans.
Ravens win – we get the #5 seed and likely rest several starters in the final game
Dolphins win – anything could happen! We would need a Browns win and Steelers win against the Ravens to get the division. Add a Bills win against the Dolphins too and we have the #1 seed.
We have seen the home/away splits so why some Debbie Downers are only looking at the first playoff game and getting a win the road to a Super Bowl is more likely with home field.
Go Dolphins!
1PM ET – PATRIOTS (4-11) @ BILLS (9-6)
Betting Line – Bills 13.0 point favorites
I have never seen Patriots fans so upset as when they won last week and moved out of the second pick in the draft to the fourth, now it is the perfect time to move all the AFC teams out the top five picks.
Also it opens up the possibility of the Bills missing the playoffs which would be great.
Go Pats!
1PM ET – SAINTS (7-8) @ BUCCANEERS (8-7)
Betting Line – Buccaneers 2.5 point favorites
Good luck to Baker, he realised he couldn’t hack it in the AFC so he joined the XFL, sorry NFC where getting to the playoffs is a whole lot easier.
Who cares!
1PM ET – 49ERS (11-4) @ COMMANDERS (4-11)
(Photo: Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images, Getty)
Betting Line – 49ers 13.0 point favorites
It sucks to root against Brissett but I really don’t want the Patriots or any AFC team sneaking into the top three picks. I’m not here to hand out bettering advice but the 13 point spread seems way too high for me with how well Brissett plays.
Go 49ers!
1PM ET – TITANS (5-10) @ TEXANS (8-7)
Betting Line – Texans 4.0 point favorites
I’m not too worried about the Titans getting a higher pick compared to a team like the Patriots as they are going to roll with Levis next season but they could be adding a skilled offensive weapon which we would rather avoid.
The Texans have showed some fight with Stroud so I would rather not face them in the playoffs compared to the Colts but if they can push someone like the Bills out the picture it would be amazing.
Go Texans!
4:05PM ET – STEELERS (8-7) @ SEAHAWKS (8-7)
Betting Line – Seahawks 3.5 point favorites
We root for teams that suck, so go Steelers. I would much rather face them than have the Bills in the playoffs. Plus the more winning they do as a franchise the less they are likely to change anything or draft a replacement at quarterback as I have preached all season.
Go Steelers!
4:25PM ET – BENGALS (8-7) @ CHIEFS (9-6)
Betting Line – Chiefs 7.0 point favorites
Could you imagine the Chiefs missing the playoffs, the anarchy would be hilarious but it is what happens when you don’t have an MVP calibre quarterback like Flacco. It isn’t going to happen but this rooting column is build on hope and that hasn’t stopped this Browns team all year.
Go Bengals!
4:25PM ET – CHARGERS (5-10) @ BRONCOS (7-8)
Betting Line – Broncos 3.5 point favorites
Absolute carnage in Denver this week, Russ will play for another team on the league minimum while Denver picks up the remainder of the $39m he is owed. It will be fascinating to see where he lands. Since the Chargers have the higher draft pick we are rooting for them as we don’t need anymore quality skilled players there because if an offensive coordinator works out Herbert they could have one of the best offenses in the NFL.
Go Chargers!
8:20PM ET (SNF) – PACKERS (7-8) @ VIKINGS (7-8)
(Photo: Jacob Morley, 247Sports)
Betting Line – Vikings 1.0 point favorites
Kwesi might aspire to be Andrew Berry with his four quarterback strategy but it hasn’t been as successful as it was in Cleveland. I expect them to be the favorite in landing Wilson because they have a pair of very talented young wide receivers plus playing on the cheap for a year allows them to spend more cash on places like extending Jefferson.
This game doesn’t really matter too much but since Kwesi is more likely to be super aggressive and trade up for a quarterback if needed let’s get a Packers win here to position him better if needed.
Who cares!
AFC PLAYOFF RACE
If the season ended today (Conference Record), bold is clinched
Division
Ravens 12-3 (7-3)
Dolphins 11-4 (7-3)
Chiefs 9-6 (7-3)
Jaguars 8-7 (6-5)
Wildcard
Browns 11-5 (8-3)
Bills 9-6 (5-5)
Colts 8-7 (6-4)
Eliminated
Texans 8-7 (5-5)
Bengals 8-7 (3-7)
Steelers 8-7 (6-5)
Raiders 7-8 (5-5)
Broncos 7-8 (4-6)
Jets 6-10 (3-8)
Titans 5-10 (3-7)
Chargers 5-10 (3-7)
Patriots 4-11 (4-6)
NFL TIEBREAKER PROCEDURE
From NFL.com:
The following procedures will be used to break standings ties for postseason playoffs and to determine regular-season schedules.
NOTE: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs.
To Break A Tie Within A Division
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.
Two Clubs
Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of three-club format.)
Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
To Break A Tie For The Wild-Card Team
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the three Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tiebreaker.
If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
Two Clubs
Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 2 of three-club format.)
Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
When the first Wild Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second and third Wild Card (i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to Step 2). In situations in which three teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tiebreaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild Card berth.
Other Tie-Breaking Procedures
Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild Card tie-breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to Step 1 of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tiebreaker, all other clubs revert to Step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
In comparing records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor, since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
To determine home-field priority among division winners, apply Wild Card tiebreakers.
To determine home-field priority for Wild Card qualifiers, apply division tiebreakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild Card tiebreakers (if teams are from different divisions).
To determine the best combined ranking among conference team’s in points scored and points allowed, add a team’s position in the two categories, and the lowest score wins. For example, if Team A is first in points scored and second in points allowed, its combined ranking is “3.” If Team B is third in points scored and first in points allowed, its combined ranking is “4.” Team A then wins the tiebreaker. If two teams are tied for a position, both teams are awarded the ranking as if they held it solely. For example, if Team A and Team B are tied for first in points scored, each team is assigned a ranking of “1” in that category, and if Team C is third, its ranking will still be “3.”
Tie-Breaking Procedure For Selection Meeting
- Clubs not participating in the playoffs shall select in the first through 18th positions in reverse-standings order.
- Clubs participating in the playoffs shall select according to the following procedures:
(A) The losers of the Wild Card games shall select in the 19th through 24th positions based on won-loss-tied percentagein reverse-standings order.
(B) The losers of the Divisional playoff games shall select in the 25th through 28th positions based on won-loss-tied percentage in reverse-standings order.
(C) The losers of the Conference Championship Games shall select 29th and 30th based on won-loss-tied percentage in reverse-standings order.
(D) The winner of the Super Bowl game shall select last and the Super Bowl loser will select next-to-last.
- If ties exist in any grouping, such ties shall be broken by figuring the aggregate won-lost-tied percentage of each involved club’s regular-season opponents and awarding preferential selection order to the club that faced the schedule of teams with the lowest aggregate won-lost-tied percentage.
- If ties still exist, apply the Divisional, Conference or Interconference tie-breaking methods, whichever is applicable.
(A) For Divisional or Conference ties, use the procedures on the previous page.
(B) For Interconference ties, use the following procedures:
(i) Ties involving TWO teams from different conferences will be broken by (a) head-to-head meeting; (b) best won-losttied percentage in common games, minimum of four, (c) strength of victory in all games, (d) best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games, (e) best net points in all games, (f) best net touchdowns in all games, and finally (g) coin toss.
(ii) Ties involving THREE-OR-MORE clubs from different conferences will be broken by applying (a) divisional tiebreakers to determine the lowest-ranked team in a division, (b) conference tiebreakers to determine the lowest-ranked team within a conference, and (c) interconference tiesbreakers to determine the lowestranked team in the league. The process will be repeated until the draft order has been established.
After the selection order for the first round of the draft has been determined, clubs originally involved in two-club ties will alternate positions from round to round. In the cases of ties that originally involved three-or-more clubs, the club at the top of a tied segment in a given round will move to the bottom of the segment for the next round, while all other clubs in the segment move up one place. This rotation will continue throughout the draft.
AFC PLAYOFF ODDS
To set the scene for where the betting market feels the AFC race is going, here are the current rankings for odds to make the playoffs, last week’s odds are in brackets:
Clinched:
Ravens
Chiefs
Browns
Remaining Teams:
3rd Dolphins N/A (-10000)
4th Jaguars N/A (N/A)
6th Bills -1200 (-200)
7th Colts +100 (-130)
8th Texans +120 (N/A)
9th Bengals +300 (+190)
10th Steelers +550 (+900)
11th Raiders +700 (+2200)
12th Broncos +1100 (+225)
No Longer have odds:
Chargers
Jets
Titans
Patriots
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