Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cardinals have received trade inquiries on switch-hitting outfielder Dylan Carlson from a number of teams, with the Blue Jays being mentioned as one of them.
The Cardinals are reportedly willing to consider trading position players in order to acquire multiple starting pitchers, so this seems like a fairly logical matchup. Meanwhile, the Yankees are reportedly interested in outfielder Alec Burleson and utility player Brendan Donovan.
Meanwhile, the Jays are hoping to add a few position players to their roster this winter. Bluebirds and redbirds have also engaged in trade on a fairly regular basis. They agreed to three different deals last year, whereby the Jays acquired Paul DeJong, Jordan Hicks, and Génesis Cabrera. Between 2017 and 2021, they also struck four more agreements.
The Cardinals would be better off selling Carlson than they would be right now, considering the outcomes of the previous two seasons.
They used the 33rd overall pick to draft him in the 2016 draft, and he became one of the club’s top prospects while in the minors, generally considered a player who was good at everything but without a standout tool, showing some good form at the plate, in the field, and on the bases.
He got a brief debut in the shortened 2020 season but seemed to break out in 2021. Getting into 149 contests in that season, he walked at a solid 9.2% clip and hit 18 home runs. His.266/.343/.437 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 111, indicating he was 11% better than the league average hitter. He split his time between all three outfield positions and was considered around average on defense, leading to a tally of 2.5 wins above replacement from FanGraphs.
In 2022, there were mixed results. On the positive side, he lowered his strikeout rate from 24.6% to 19.3% while keeping his walk rate steady, and his defensive grades were slightly better. But he made multiple trips to the injured list, getting sidelined by a left hamstring strain and a left thumb sprain. He was limited to 128 games and just eight home runs but still produced 2.5 fWAR thanks to his improved defense.
But 2023 was unquestionably a disappointing campaign. He suffered an ankle sprain in May and went on the injured list for almost a month. Though he returned in June, the issue didn’t go away, and he eventually required surgery later in the year. While on the field, he hit just 219/.318/.333 for a wRC+ of 84, but it’s fair to speculate about the ankle causing some of those results.
Carlson still has three years of club control left, qualifying for arbitration for the first time this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a salary of $1.8 million for 2024, with two further arb years slated to follow.
Moving on from a former first-round pick while he’s still young and affordable would likely be tough for the Cards, especially with his value somewhat weakened by the ankle surgery. But their desire for pitching and their position player surplus may put it on the table.
Even if Carlson were removed, the club would still have Burleson, Donovan, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Tommy Edman, and Richie Palacios competing for outfield jobs, with Juan Yepez, Moises Gomez, and Michael Siani also on the roster. Some of those players are also capable of playing on the infield, but the club has Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, and Masyn Winn potentially lined up on the dirt. That may put them in a position to move one or more of these players while still fielding a strong lineup.
The Blue Jays, as mentioned, are looking to acquire some position players this winter. Carlson could perhaps bolster the Toronto outfield, which just lost Kevin Kiermaier to free agency. But whether they can provide the starting pitching that is coveted in St. Louis is an interesting question.
The Jays have four rotation spots filled by Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi but a question mark for the fifth. The Cards would likely have varying degrees of interest in someone from that group, but the Jays might not want to open a second question mark in their rotation. Speculatively speaking, Alek Manoah could be an interesting fit for these talks, since he’s also a former top prospect coming off a down year.
He posted a 5.87 ERA in 2023 while getting optioned to the minors multiple times as his relationship with the club appeared to sour.
He is still a year away from qualifying for arbitration, but his circumstances are vaguely analogous to Carlson’s since both are still affordable and controllable but come off frustration campaigns, albeit for different reasons. Toronto’s GM Ross Atkins said yesterday that Manoah should have the inside track on a rotation job, but the club also has other options like Mitch White, Bowden Francis, and prospect Ricky Tiedemann, while they could also look to bolster that group in free agency.
That’s pure speculation, and the clubs are likely discussing various scenarios, with the Cards fielding plenty of calls from clubs around the league. Carlson received interest from the Yankees and Orioles last year, and it stands to reason that those clubs would likely be interested again. This winter’s free agent class is generally considered weak on the position player side, which could position the Cards to use their many talented players to improve their pitching staff as they look to bounce back from a disappointing 2023 campaign.
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