ESPN projection bullish on Bears’ No. 1 pick chances originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
The Chicago Bears have said all the right things about feeling like they’re still in the playoff race in the NFC, but there is still the matter of potentially getting the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to deal with.
According to at least one metric, the Bears’ chances may be higher than you think.
The Carolina Panthers, who will be sending the Bears their first-round pick as part of the spring trade that landed the Bears’ DJ Moore and other selections in exchange for the top pick in the 2023 Draft, have a record of 1-10 this season, and a two-game cushion over the New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals for that spot.
That status, along with the Bears’ current spot of No. 5 in the draft order thanks to their 5-8 record, leaves the Bears with a staggering 95% chance of earning the No. 1 pick in the draft, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
The Patriots have a 3% chance at the pick, with the Cardinals at 2%. The rest of the NFL checks in at less than 1%, meaning that the top pick will likely come down to those three teams.
For those curious, the Panthers have four games left this season. All four of them are against teams that are still in playoff contention, including the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars, as well as the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers.
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