There is an emerging scenario where both the Glasgow giants dine at UEFA’s VIP restaurant without the need to qualify.
After Rangers’ damaging, but not fatal, defeat at Celtic Park at the end of 2023, their chances of regaining the Scottish Premiership title were dented. Celtic are the bookies’ favourites to win three in a row—their 12th title in the last 13 years—and the monumental £40m-plus of revenue that comes with the new UEFA Champions League.
However, if that happens then the blow to Rangers could be softened as both they AND Celtic could qualify automatically for the first edition of the new 36 team Champions League – thanks to a brand-new access point that will be opened in the new tournament. Over the last few years, if the UCL winner had already secured entry into the following season’s tournament through their domestic league (for example, finishing in the top four in England) then their automatic spot would go to the champion of the 11th ranked league.
Scotland benefited from this ruling in season 2022/23 – as although we were ranked 11th and outside the automatic places, our champions, Ange Postecoglou’s Celtic, still entered directly into the group stage WITHOUT having to play UCL qualifiers, by virtue of the UCL winners Real Madrid having already secured their own qualification through La Liga (as an aside, Russia’s expulsion from European football would have elevated us to a top 10 position that season anyway) Similarly, if the Europa League winner had already gained direct access to the UCL through their domestic league, then their automatic UCL entry ticket would go to the third placed team in the 5th ranked league (normally France)
This all changes in the new format, which could be great news for Rangers – both this season and in future seasons. If the Champions League winner already qualifies through their domestic league position, then their automatic spot goes to the highest ranked champion in Champions League qualifying – instead of the champions of the 11th ranked league.
This won’t benefit Scotland at the end of this year as our champions will not be in qualifying, as we were the 9th ranked league. However, it could help us in future seasons as we are likely to fall out of the top 10 ranked leagues. Even if we ranked the 14th or 15th league – if Rangers (or Celtic) won the SPFL and had the highest club coefficient of all the champions from leagues ranked 11 and below, then they could still skip the UCL qualifiers.
Much more imminently though, Rangers could benefit directly at the end of THIS season, but only if the Europa League winner qualifies for the UCL via their domestic position (so someone like Liverpool, Bayer Leverkusen, Feyenoord or AC Milan). If that happens, then the spare UCL entry ticket no longer goes to 3rd place in the 5th ranked league and instead goes to the highest ranked club in Champions League qualifying. Therefore, if Celtic win the league and Rangers finish 2nd , then due to their high club coefficient – Rangers could skip the UCL Qualifiers and gain direct entry to the brand new UCL.
This will only happen if Rangers are the highest ranked club in Champions League qualifying and as things stand, it’s Benfica who have the highest club coefficient (72) of the non-champions projected to enter the UCL qualifiers. However there are only 5 points between 1st and 4th in Portugal and so Benfica could easily move from 2nd place and not enter UCL qualifying.
Rangers (club coefficient of 62) already have their 1 bonus point for reaching the EL last 16, so the maximum remaining coefficient points available to them is 13 points – if they were to win every match including the final. Thus, it’s very unlikely Rangers will catch either of Porto (75) or Benfica (72) who are 13 points and 10 points ahead respectively.
Therefore, for Rangers to take advantage of this potential safety net if they finish 2nd , they will require both Porto AND Benfica NOT to finish 2nd – so that neither of them enters Champions League qualifying. Thankfully any other club that can finish 2nd in Portugal has a lower club coefficient than Rangers.
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